The numbers in that latest MST report are pretty eye opening and I don't think the market appreciates how big a step change is coming. FWIW there seems to be an error in his Figure 8, he's used EBITDAX instead of EBITDA to calculate EBIT which flows through to his FY25 NPAT but we're still looking at an increase in underlying NPAT from basically zero to ~$13M.
And that's using a gas price assumption of $8 which i think is conservative. At $9 it goes to FY NPAT OF $20M.
He also states he has not included production uplift from these Mereenie wells bit has included the cost (though his Exploration and Development expense is only $2.8M which seems an underestimate for 25% of 2 Mereenie wells, even if they are P&A). So there is even further upside if these wells are successful, which as I've previously said should be around a 90% chance.
All in all there are a few minor questionable assumptions for me in his model but the underlying trend is clear, CTP *should* be headed for a game-changing profit this FY, and I think it should be more than MST's forecast.
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