Hi John
Yes there are panicky sellers. You are correct.
And I believe the right approach is to remain positive as you said you are doing.
And you are right - the Kogi story remains in tack.
But what about buying more at these prices?
Good question.
I suppose you need to determine why the share price is falling, what is your outlook, and whether there is value at the current share price.
Let me address each of these briefly:
In my mind the share price is falling due to the combination of weak overall market sentiment not to mention a slight vacuum as far as project development news. I believe neither of these factors reflect the bottom up fundamental intrinsic value of the company.
As for the outlook - well it is nothing short of significantly positive for all the reasons that have been mentioned on here over the course of the year. The testwork results were excellent. The project has government support. The project will fill a significant need within the country. It ticks all the boxes.
Finally is there value in the current share price? Regardless of where the SP has traded this year (we are at the lows of the year vs the high of 20c) I point on the DCF work posted by chiller on here that shows the SP by any measure is at least 10% of where you could argue its valuation should be. ie - it is at least a Disallowed from here.
So while today's announcement regarding IB's retirement is a sad one, it could only be done if the project had sufficient momentum that gives him confidence that its on the path to success with others steering the ship.
And this is where we find ourselves today and this is a positive.
So buying more at these prices? Well each to their own.. but I firmly believe this is one of those moments where people will look back in 12 months time and think they were crazy in not taking advantage of the opportunity that is in front of them right now.
Good luck
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