Assuming UAC doesn’t accept the current Iberdrola offer,...

Assuming UAC doesn’t accept the current Iberdrola offer, presumably the following scenarios could play out:

1. After the required stand down period, Iberdrola negotiates a higher bid with UAC and exceeds the 90% threshold meaning that compulsory acquisition of the remaining shares occurs (presumably at the same price UAC receives?);
2. Iberdola decides it will lock UAC and the other non-accepting shareholders in and seeks to transfer value over time to another Iberdrola group entity;
3. Iberdola is happy with 75%+ and puts its plans for IFN into effect and drives future value in IFN. This likely involves a cash issue requiring all shareholders to contribute further cash or be diluted.

What price would UAC sell for?

Given UAC has $178m of forgone sale price (if they accepted 92 cps) at stake, I assume they are not going to lie down and let scenario 2) happen.

So some medium to longer term upside available to shareholders who hold out (or who buy on market now) but not without some risk. UAC as a ‘protecter’ may provide some comfort.