So Hartley's believes that IW2 success is already factored into the SP? And that the market rates that success as being 100-200 bopd from a vertical flow test!
IMO, if the market view of success is so limited, then the SP still has a long way to travel north upon successful results. Unless I am mistaken, successful results will not just be limited to this headline figure of bopd - but may reflect a potential for better than modeled economics of development and extraction; and a partial reclassification of resource in nearby acreage from prospective resource to contingent reserve. Those two factors alone would not be in today's SP. Furthermore, the company has been reluctant to be specific on the resource uplift associated with the additional acreage until 2V is concluded. In gross terms this could be a 2.5x uplift in prospectivity of unconventional. I expect the motivation for the company to elaborate on this, in some detail, post a successful 2v, will be great. We then have the HRZ delineation plan, which is reportedly being permitted and will reportedly coincide with testing of Alpha, Bravo and Charlie - so conventional could also be reflected in the SP.
So, in short, 2V success in a fuller sense is not reflected in the SP yet. IMO. And beyond that, post-2v plans could provide further near term catalysts. All of which will improve the terms of the next essential stage of funding to further unlock the treasure chest - be it farm out or CR.
DYOR and GLTA.
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