Ann: iCobalt Spin Out and MTC Priority Offer, page-121

There is history of Chinese Govt refusing to clear funds to go offshore. That possibility is what has pushed the SP down. IMO - naturally an ordinary punter can only surmise these things.

As a result of Australia's actions in the 'surveillance scandal' China felt it lost face. They might retaliate on Australia in commercial ways, and refusing to clear funds for this purchase might be one.

But - again IMO - if China cuts off it's nose to spite it's face, it has lost more face - hasn't it?

I think they are way too clever for that. But even if they do act foolishly, surely there are other cornerstone investors who would step up into the hot Lithium space and the red hot Cobalt space? I think so.

But there are two other deterrents to this SP rising like all my other Li and Co plays.

They both have to do with the way the spinoff is structured.

Firstly as others have stated, and said they feel robbed, we get no free iCobalt shares. I think we should, and it seemed so obvious to me that we should, that I mis-read the ann of 28/12 and at first concluded that we would.
Secondly, the offer is not pro-rata across the full range of possible holdings. This means that there is no incentive for holders to increase their MTC holding from 20000 to 50000, of above 1,250,000, to increase their guaranteed entitlement to participate in the IPO.

Frankly, I think the structure of this spinnoff is crazy for a 20mill caped company - maybe OK for a 1 bill capped producing miner in order to streamline management. IMO the market does too.

Anyway, the one advantage is that if you are interested in iCobalt - (and I am, more so than the lithium side) - and subscribe for an over allocation of IPO shares there will be no freebies to be dumped on open and you could expect a stag to 40c or more first day. See the price action for NCZ which opened at 40c and dropped briefly to 32 before a stellar run.

The IPO could be money for jam. Hopefully the project will be well marketed.