ID8 12.5% 0.9¢ identitii limited

Ann: Identitii Q4 FY21 Quarterly Investor Update, page-38

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    5m cashMC of $10m + debt (nil) less cash $4m = $6m...

    Cash is always cash, a dollar is worth a dollar, so need to ignore that in the MC ultimately when assessing a return, and a value of an underlying company. (why PE is somewhat useless and should look at earnings on EV).. Ultimately this measure is a bit mute anyways now as everything is traidng above long term historical PE's due to lim interest rates etc... another topic for another time.

    Give you an example.

    Company A has $100m Mkt cap, no debt and $95m cash.
    Company B has $100m Mkt cap, no debt and $5m cash.

    Without knowing anymore which is the bigger business? Well you strip out the cash, Company a has no value ascribed to its business.... this is the relevance.

    Now, as Cash gets used up one of two things happens, EV stays the same, and MKT cap falls as cash is depleted... A better scenario is, EV increase as cash is put into generating revenue and growing the business.

    SO the key Qn and task for Mgmt is to put the $4.5m at the end of the quarter into signing some deals and increasing the business value.

    The point I was making in my post is that Payable is valued by CBA at ~$4m essentially pre revenue, making ID8's +50% stake worth $2m or a third of the current EV. CBA has a right to double their stake for another $1m... And this is ID8's "small business". What are the other businesses actually worth. At the moment it doesn't matter to the market as the cash burn is all punters are worried about, rightly so.

    Seen this plenty of times, stock with potential gets flogged off on cash burn concerns, it becomes self fulfilling, mgmt gets almost forced into a raise out of worry the share price will go lower, and be even more dilutive the lower it goes. Only to raise at the bottom just as they are generating some revenue.

 
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