If this takeover were be voted on in its current form and price, a major factor will be the engagement or apathy by smaller shareholders. The most likely scenario is that shareholder apathy will continue meaning the vast majority of the circa 6,300 shareholders in the company won't vote, assuming it to be a done deal. The 75% will need to be achieved across those that do vote so the effective weighting of large shareholders is larger than as shown through shares on issue.
At the 2022 AGM the resolution around re-electing Paul Payne had the highest number of votes cast, 18,410,548. This is just over 7% of shares on issue indicating a very low level of shareholder engagement in voting. Not even the majority of larger shareholders are voting.
An interesting feature of the scheme of arrangement provisions in Australia is the 50% of shareholders voting condition. If the offer isn't increased this has the potential to create a no vote that could skuttle the deal. In this instance small and often silent shareholders do actually have collective power.
https://www.minterellison.com/articles/how-a-scheme-of-arrangement-works#:~:text=A%20scheme%20of%20arrangement%20is,wide%20range%20of%20corporate%20restructures.
MinterEllison - How a scheme of arrangement works
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