Hi @Bayer3 - it's a classic bird in the hand, two in the bush situation with WSA. What people do will depend on their risk appetite.
There's a guaranteed payout of $3.36 sometime after the vote in April next year. Say 4-5 months away.
There *might* be a higher payout of say $3.70 (maybe even as high as 4, but very unlikely to be higher) if another bidder comes in.
Or you can sell today at prices which have gone up to $3.51.
The difference between $3.70 and $3.51 is only 19c - a bit over 5%.
Some sellers may be thinking that they can take the money now and invest better to get that 5% and more over 6 months somewhere else. Some sellers may be thinking that rumours of a bidding war are just rumours and better to take the premium now over the guaranteed $3.36 in 6 months time.
I'm happy to hold right now and see what happens - as others have said, the market is rarely wrong. Especially for WA companies which are home to the biggest collection of loose-lipped mining gossips in the world. There's a good chance Twiggy could make a play - if I recall correctly, he personally got $4B in divvies from FMG alone - so $1.1B isn't necessarily even something he'd have to borrow.
But if it goes much over $3.50, then I'll be sorely tempted to reduce some (but not all) of my holding.
