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10/03/22
21:51
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Originally posted by mattylevo:
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Your use of the term "the market is always right" is lacking nuance here. If the market was always right there would be no such thing as "oversold" and "overbought" I agree that in the long term the market is the best indicator of the correct price but the market can react irrationally in the short term and often does. The other problem with that statement is that it implies that the majority of people that sold today were able to make an informed decision of the results without the full clinical information within minutes of the announcement being released. Add to this the fact that anticipation of this announcement was well publicised and long awaited as a large price catalyst for IHL so swing traders who have no conviction in the company or the results would have bought in to ride the high. Their intention would have always been to sell on the news, don't underestimate what this can do to the price in one day of trading. Let's wait for the information to be digested by smart money as I don't imagine institutions were sitting there refreshing the CommSec app waiting for the results to come in only to make a decision within minutes of the information being released. Let's also wait for some liquidity to build up in the nasdaq where these type of results are better understood by investors. I'm not necessarily saying that I know they will react to the results any better but I wouldn't jump to conclusions that the results are terrible before smart money and nasdaq investors have digested it yet. All this being said if you are well versed in biotech stocks I'd love to hear your thoughts as to why the market reaction was correct? I ask this genuinely because I'm definitely not an expert and from what I read the results seem very promising but am open to being schooled on it.
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IMO, the market wants to know when the company will be profitable, today's announcement only solidifies that it is a MAYBE, and even then, a long way off. it was sold down prior to the announcement, which flies in the face of 'buy the rumour'. in this case it was a sell the rumour, sell the news. my honest opinion though, all i see is a line of resistance at 70 and support at 40. it will test one of these, and if 9ne is broken, this will tell us if the uptrend is still in play, or has ended. for me, the buy signal is a strong close above 70, anything other entry point is gambling / speculation.