IME (ASX) Ann: IMEXHS wins new contract with Colombia's National Police

Originally posted by Autumnconcerto: ↑

If I can outline some high level thoughts on the bull and bear arguments, mainly for my own benefit:

Bull case points:
Tiny niche player in a fast growing industry: Regardless of how you define IME's market, there's pretty clear growth coming through. From IME's 1H21 slide deck, Statista's 2019-2027 CAGR for the RIS/PACs market is 8.5%. The CAGR for cloud-based solutions like IME would logically be even higher. When we look at the adjacent radiology as a service market (which is what RIMAB is involved in), Grand View Research in Dec-21 put out a CAGR of 20% through to 2028 ($4.7bn USD). Why do I think this is important? Because where growth is good for the overall industry, players don't need to compete to take market share to grow revenues. So competitors like Pro Medicus and your large hardware providers (e.g. Fujifilm, GE Healthcare, Phillips, Siemens etc.) are more likely to leave IME's niche (Tier 2 and Tier 3 clients - smaller and regional hospitals) alone compared to if market growth was smaller. There's also the opportunity to tap into other markets outside radiology such as pathology / cardiology / dentistry / etc. by tweaking IME's software, so the TAM is huge relative to IME's size.

Very low levels of churn indicates customer satisfaction: IME has a customer retention rate that is staggeringly high - 95%. And per the 2021 AGM comments the Chairman mentioned that IME "have never been displaced by a competitor". That's exactly what you want to see in a SaaS business.
Huge levels of director buying as mentioned above: Average cost base for directors is well above current levels.

Founder-led business with high development focus: Founder led businesses are different from companies led by career CEOs. There's generally more urgency and focus around business operations. The fact the CEO is a practicing radiologist and that the company has 35% of its workforce on software development are good indicators.

Bear case points:
Corporate governance issues: Buying a company owned by the CEO (RIMAB) that is involved in a number of related party transactions is a....really bad look. That being said there are two positives to come out of this: 1) Just $1.4m out of the $8.5m purchase price was cash. So Dr Arango very much has his eggs in the IME basket. and 2) This clears up the decks / accounting a fair bit going forward. Think corporate governance under the Doug Flynn led board should be a lot better going forwards.
Short-term slowdown in revenue / new deals due to Omicron: Given resurgence in COVID is a drag on imaging (deferral of non-essential imaging), this is likely to impact the speed at which new deals are signed (hospitals will be distracted by fighting fires, tech deals take a backseat).
...which leads to a potential cash crunch / risk of capital raise: As IME is still burning cash and only has $6.2m cash as at Sep-21 post the RIMAB acquisition, this raises the possibility of another cap raise which is obviously a bad thing at these depressed share prices.
Obscurity - who will be the marginal buyer? This is either good or bad depending on your viewpoint. IME has a tiny market cap, has operations concentrated in South America and has a very obscure name (IMEXHS) which sounds extremely dull (Imaging Experts and HealthCare Services). Institutions can't own it due to size/geographical risk, retail investors won't be drawn by a sexy sounding company name and the company doesn't screen well as it's not yet hitting accounting profitability. This is probably good if you want to be a net buyer, but means that the business will likely need to start delivering solid results / hitting cash flow positive before momentum will start to build.

Expand

Good balanced summary.

The only thing I would add to the bull case is they are starting 2022 with a new sales agreement in place with a major global radiology player in Neusoft (110 countries)

not only do I believe this is a strong validation of the quality of the SaaS offering but there is really no benchmark in sales to date to compare against as to how much this may accelerate deal and revenue volumes

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Ann: IMEXHS wins new contract with Colombia's National Police, page-33

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