I think the market has missed it entirely
for what it’s worth, the results presented seem like a significant derisking event. What ever probability was assigned to success last week, it’s got to be higher this week.
you would assume that there’s some mathematical methodology to ascribing value to these stocks - some type of NPV based off TAM x market share x risk x time and you would get a number. And that value for risk became a lot closer to 1 rather than 0. And and beady41 observed - the target market (all sub groups) has also likely increased too.
unfortunately seems like the market today is just driven by sentiment and very little in the way of empirical analysis.
for mine, I previously have this pegged at. 30-40% chance of success and really feel that number’s doubled for this indication (NSCLC)
so todays price represents a much better deal on risk/reward than last week.
hopefully the wider market / global issues settle and little rationality returns to the market. And some world peace too
Cheers YS
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