Opportunity CostI think it's important to acknowledge the valuation potential of Race similar to what
@LongTony has alluded to in the past.
The idea that the SP should be at $4 right now, we would need to pay x4 times as much per share. Another way of thinking about it is right now you by 1 share and get 3 for free. Or, if the SP was now $4 then your return would only be 25% of your ultimate ROI.
Also, even if ATH is achieved, it may give us a warm fuzzy feeling but is the end game sell for $500m I would hope not. If we consider the development cost behind Bisantrene over the years it wouldn't even cover the cost of development.
It doesn't help those investors that bought at ATH and no spare capital to average down. But if they thought the prospects were good at that time, how much more have things progressed since?
So short term price, v long term value + look at the big picture. Whilst the SP is sad if you look at it daily, market will not change so I adjust my strategy, accordingly, go with the flow. Others might take a loss and redeploy capital in the interim. Its up to everyone to make their own choices.
Strategic Update
To me Pete appears to be the right person for the job, so more comfortable now than ever before.
Looking forward to the strategic update but it's not going to turn the SP around overnight. We also know the focus is Cardio Protect, FTO and AML, nothing has changed. Think some shareholders are still expecting way too much from the revised strategy.
IMO there is unlikely to be a partnership agreement (yet), they won't confirm a transaction date, that's not how it works. The trials can't be accelerated further, due to manufacturing, IND's and approvals etc that are largely out of their control. Thats the nature of investing.
Yes, there have been delays, delays and more delays. We are talking weeks, months perhaps 1-2 years max. In the scheme of things this is insignificant for the size of a transaction that might be possible.
The takeaway is the delays have not reduced the value of Race, even if the short-term SP has taken a hit. You could even argue it has been enhanced because the exclusivity / patent life has been extended.
What Next?
I will sit tight until the strategic update. It has taken them months to put together and not sure I can fully digest this after a 5 minute read over a coffee. Can sense it right now comments flying through on HC within minutes of the post. Shareholders should have a 24 hour 'trading halt' imposed on their comments. Lets wait and see.
Best of luck DYOR (not advice)!
(20min delay)