RAC 0.81% $1.22 race oncology ltd

Ann: Impressive Preclinical Bisantrene Breast Cancer Results, page-223

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    DYOR. Not advice. Analysis is highly-speculative.
    Here's a scenario for a royalty model, where RAC develops Bisantrene in consultation with a partner that does the marketing and sales.

    These are the main differences in assumptions used:
    • Assumed fully-diluted share issue 250M shares (current is approximately 156M and I used 200M in buyout scenarios). Reasoning for this is increased investment that might be required by RACE.
    • 20% royalty on sales for AML and Ovarian Cancer as these are smaller indications
    • 15% royalty on sales for Breast Cancer
    • Increased after-tax margin to 20% (this is RACE's assumed after-tax margin as a proportion of total their net revenue from a royalty received from a partner)
    • I have done share price projections at 22.48 (pharma industry average) and a more bullish 30.0.
    I think this is a higher-risk proposition for RACE and that it will take more time for ramp-up of treatments to patients.

    Note - the revenue line is peak revenue at year 7 of commercialisation. So could take several years for 5+ years for share prices.

    Lol - spilit offee o y wireless keyoard. ight eed to let it dry. Sees to e the otto row that is the aily affeted. If there are ay errors the I a laig the keyoard

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