https://www.acsh.org/news/2020/06/11/clinical-trial-success-rates...

https://www.acsh.org/news/2020/06/11/clinical-trial-success-rates-phase-and-therapeutic-area-14845

I genuinely expect IMU to be successful, but the path to drug development is littered with failure, especially for Oncology. Plenty of drugs fail in phase 3 and they wouldn't have put the time and money into them if they weren't showing promise at phase 2.

With her-vaxx for example it is in a small sample size trial in addition to SOC. With the numbers involved it is possible, though very unlikely, to just be random chance that one group has performed better than the other from SOC treatment. I work for a bookmaker and while you don't expect the $1.01 favourite to get rolled, it most definitely happens.

That said, IMU has had stellar results to date and a perfect safety record. So we can and should be confident, but it isn't guaranteed.