Tempered expectations – my two cents worth
I attended the Sydney presentation, albeit I was 5 minutes late and drank 4 champagnes. I’d like to share my views and feelings. Some of my positions may have been presented by other posters but I think it’s fine to reiterate points which stood out. Quotes are from memory but are certainly ‘words to the effect’.
Professor Yuman Fong – an impressive and formidable man. CF33 has not and will not reach MDT – maximum tolerated dose. This to me implies they are seeing the results they need to without going anywhere near safety/toxicity limitations. YF again spoke of the large therapeutic window seen in animal studies between optimal dosing and dose toxicity, describing it as “unheard of”. He explained that the larger the window, the more likely the treatment would be effective in humans. YF showed a slide of the COH buildings, highlighting how close they are to the LA mountains and that it’s a beautiful environment to work. He also pointed out the centre across the road where he can gain access to viruses for research which contributed to the attraction of working at COH. I love YF’s presentation style; he’s supremely confident and sure of the information he is presenting. He explains highly technical content in easy-to-understand terms. Yuman Fong is clearly the star of the entire outfit and it has become apparent to me that the CF33 platform is the frontrunner in terms of expected results and timelines.
Leslie Chong – confident and even cheeky in some of her responses. LC said everyone at IMU has contacts and networks with BP and are in regular contact. She joked that Monil works from 5am to 5am and assured shareholders he’s working diligently. When asked where she sees herself in 3 years, she said likely at another company, potentially at an iteration of Imugene 2.0. I later spoke to LC privately and asked her to clarify. My feeling is she believes CF33 will be licenced out, and that Hervaxx is more likely to be bought outright. I also take her IMU 2.0 comment as the company as we know it partnering with a singular BP company and potentially becoming an additional arm / iteration of the existing company. Things will be different in 3 years, that was communicated as a given, a certainty. Leslie also made a comment about leaving her previous role on the 8th of the month, travelling overseas and beginning her role at IMU on the 11th of the month. She mentioned she needs a holiday, she’s working hard, she sees the potential and knows what it takes to see this baby through. She’s potentially exhausted, and it seems to me that she’s putting her absolute all into IMU.
Hervaxx – LC’s response was a little underwhelming for me here. She implied that all biotech markets are down and that when they pick up again a Hervaxx deal can be on the cards. She mentioned the space is highly competitive, and that we had a great recent data readout. She also said that one of the competitor products had “stellar data”, although Hervaxx has a better safety profile. As many other posters have said, Hervaxx is not dead, but LC said the path to success is becoming narrower and that we require more trials / data.
Overall – my expectations have been tempered somewhat, not in terms of the future success of the company but certainly in terms of timeframes. It’s easy to read HC (and I admittedly probably need to take a break) and think that data / results / SP explosions are imminent. In biotech terms, I suppose they are, but we still require patience. YF reiterated how fast the Vaxinia trials are moving, clearing 10 cohorts in just over 12 months. It’s also important that the trials are designed and conducted in a smart and meaningful way to accrue data that can be submitted for favourable FDA outcomes. I believe this is happening. IMU are an amazing team doing revolutionary work. The Biotech preso in Hobart will come and go, we aren’t being presented with earth-shattering data just yet, but we do know that it’s around the corner and we are hearing it directly from Yuman Fong himself that we are seeing CF33 work in humans as it does in mice. YF joked at one stage that “of course we would all like to cure cancer now, but it takes time”. Talk of spilling the board is not helpful, that’s the last thing the company needs. An outcome like that could be disastrous when we’re on the brink of major breakthroughs. I suspect the top 40 shareholders are all comfortable and assured and believe in the IMU team and that should bring some reassurance to the board. I also feel that a lot of recent posting on HC has become intentionally negative and convoluted in a bid to distract from meaningful dialogue and discussion. It’s a shame.
These are purely my thoughts and opinions, happy for them to be discussed / disputed. We are on the brink of major breakthrough, we just have to sit tight and give it a little more time. In 3 years we may well be in version 2.0 of IMU, how exciting for all holders to be on that journey. If you can’t or choose not to hold tight for now, I respect that too.
DYOR, not financial advice.
