Nice post . Though your valuation assumes IMU can get to...

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dealmein

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05/09/24

21:30

Post #: 75550708
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Originally posted by Shaunbra: ↑

Hello fellow HC punters

Here are my thoughts on the webinar.

I found it to be quite informative. You can hear the excitement and professionalism in their presentation.

- One of the first things I noticed is Monil Shah listed as a consultant. That's news to me, I can only speculate that there's been a change in his employment status / service to Imugene?

- Dr. Paul Woodard provided a clear objective / target for the Azer-cel 1b trial. "We would like to see 30-50% Complete Response with a 6+ month durability". (Not a direct quote, but words to that effect from memory).
- This also provides us with an indicative timeline. Imugene currently have 5 patients in Cohort B, they plan to recruit another 10-15 across many sites in Australia and the US. Let's say this takes roughly 3 months as our results thus far are promising. Patients will be on trial a further 6+ months (the stated durability target). Paul Woodard then says it takes roughly 70 days to initiate and engage with the FDA. I believe that would be with the required data reviewed and read to present. All up that's close to 12 months. Paul also hinted that we will likely have easier avenues to communicate with the FDA, one would think he's alluding to another fast-track designation.
- Leslie took a question about the potential registrational trial stretching out in timeframe and she said "no, definitely 2025. It might slide a couple of quarters but we're definitely looking at 2025". (Again, quote is from memory watching the webinar live on Wednesday).
- Asked whether we could charge patients while on the registrational trial, Leslie gave a one word answer - "no". I'm not well-read on registrational trials but it seemed that's not necessarily an immediate path to preliminary revenue. I'll let someone else speak to that point further.

Potential valuations- Leslie clearly speculated that calculating only the US DLBCL population which relapses from autologous CAR-T therapies, that Imugene could "conservatively" (direct quote) bring in $2.5 billion USD annual revenue. That's not taking into consideration other blood cancer CAR-T indications (lymphoma, myeloma etc) which Azer-cel could potentially replace.
- A quick Google search finds Price/Earnings ratios of biotech companies ranging from 12 to 72. Even using the most conservative of figures and potential cancer indications my calculations are as follows.

$2.5bn annual revenue / 8 billion shares = $0.31 EPS x 12 P/E ratio = $3.75 per/share

That's before taking into account any other blood cancers, the potential future value of Vaxinia, and the game-changing potential of combining OnCARlytics with our very own allogeneic Azer-cel.

The pump and dump continues. I'm actually not feeling that worried about seeing a declining SP because it's more opportunity to buy. This has a few years to play out, but once the tide turns I think it will turn hard. If Imugene succeed with a single product, it will be life-changing for me and my family (as an investor) but more importantly life-saving for patients worldwide. From where I stand, I'm excited by the prospects of all our currently developing products. Each day we wait is a day of more data accrual.

GLTAH, dyor, all the best. Shornbra.

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Nice post . Though your valuation assumes IMU can get to approval without dilution of some sort or a partner . This will not be possible without some form of dilution. I will be happy with $1

IMU Price at posting: 5.6¢ Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
13 Upvote

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