Ann: IN SITU EXPANSION STUDY DELIVERS STRONG VALUE ADD POTENTIAL, page-93

Having an offtake agreement with a smelter is different to having a smelter within the same group. The smelters will be pushing to extract every advantage in their situation.
Say the smelter has a hiccup and needs to delay the shipment a month or two. Guess who’s cashflow is impacted or needs to enter into the spot market? Certainly not a great position for NCZ to be in.
Within a larger group with a smelter & mine this wouldn’t be a big issue.

Take a look at at physical zinc metal premiums - if there was any concern of shortages from zinc customers there would be higher premiums in China. Premiums have been dropping all year - premiums were around $150 cif Shanghai last year and currently $90. Zinc customers & traders don’t seem too concerned about the low exchange stocks. Can you show me where Macquarie made that comment?

Noticed the price deck being used to justify the expansion. Looking further and further from reality re Zn price - its currently more than 20% away from the assumed price for the current FY:


NCZ has a lot riding on a significantly higher zinc price (and lower TCs) especially during the next 6 months.