Ok the fx rates are 0.73 for 2020. So around 7-8% better than...

Ok the fx rates are 0.73 for 2020. So around 7-8% better than current spot.
I didn’t even mention the TC they are assuming which is flat 170/mt including 2020, a full $100/mt lower than the current spot TC! So don’t accuse me of picking individual points. Looking at it on the whole it is significantly more optimistic than the current market.

The concentrate market is currently oversupplied - so yes an additional 100k extra will at the very least prevent the drop of zinc TCs due to higher smelter utilisation in China. Worst case you could see more increases

Very few points are showing that demand is there - zinc metal premiums, stock increasing in SHFE, negative arbitrage brining zinc into China (remember last year there were a number of times there where large stock movements were from LME to China which isn’t really occurring this year).

Will be interesting to see if other mines eg. Dugald River/Gamsberg and the mines Glencore brought back online will have the same idea to push more tonnes to reduce costs and get tonnes out at higher zinc price. Not a large volume for each mine but all adding incremental tonnes.

Lets look at our respective track record on NCZ and the zinc market in general:

https://hotcopper.com.au/threads/expectations.4549687/page-2#post-37257397 (in Feb at around 70c)

- in Feb I was a zinc price bull given the tight physical metal market at the time saying there was a deficit in metals. My view since then has changed given the facts. Zinc price peaked in Apr and dropped since.
- I was claiming zinc concentrate market was in a surplus and TCs were around $250-270. You were claiming zinc TCs were apparently going down from Feb. Other cheerleaders were claiming TCs were in the mid 100s....
- I said they would need a cap raising. You said they would not.

Pattos apparently had great analysis according to you:
https://hotcopper.com.au/threads/ann-brisbane-mining-club-presentation.4710520/#post-38181406 (around 90c)

Hopefully people were able to do their own research at the time and not just follow the permabulls.

Let me make my current view very clear - there is potential for zinc price to rally in the short term as it looks oversold however I expect it to be below $1/lb by the end of the year.