I reckon if you use weighted percentage on the chance for a...

I reckon if you use weighted percentage on the chance for a stock to rise it would look something like :

US Futures Performance (Weighted at 70%)
Actual Stock Performance (25%)
Other Market Indicators (5%).

For me this was the most important thing to understand with the ASX. i.e what is announced plays a big part long term but in the short term asx stock prices typically follow US Futures. US futures has been hammered over the last week which is why our stock price has been hammered over the last week..

Expect the same pattern to continue until the US stop increasing rates. ie after each rate hike its a bloodbath on the US futures, shit rolls downhill to our market and then the slow recovery begins again. Cycle will repeat until the US stop increasing rates IMO.