Ann: Inaugural shipment of spodumene concentrate sails, page-82

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rednoff

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30/09/24

15:26

Post #: 75908238
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Originally posted by anatol ↑

Congratulations to all fellow holders for this milestone event.

This is just the beginning.

This spod shipped is produced from the old DSO ore. It's not representing the calculated mine feed ore which is at much higher grade. The received price is also very good.

What matter here is for me that the plant is working very well and the ramp up process is going on very well too. LTR is now saying that we have produced more than 28,000kt of spod concentrate at a weighted average grade of 5.2% since announcing first production. That is exactly what I was expecting.

On my Post #:75515319 on Sept 4, I have done some production and revenue calculations. I said I was expecting 300kt production until the end of FY2025 (end of June 2025) by a revenue of AU$450m.

My estimation was done depends on the production and revenue table below which seems to be correct for first two months; (it's done on Sept.1st)

As you can see August and September production was about 30kt on my table which seems to be right in hindsight now. Also the spod price of US$800/t looks nearly the same.

Then see the next months for production and revenues. You will see AU$450m revenue at the end.

For the details you see my old post #:75515319 on Sept 4.

Nameplate capacity is around 511kt spod concentrate for 3m ore feed. That may be a little bit more (~550kt) depends on many other conditions but I don't it will be any less than that. Name plate capacity which is going to be around ~45kt per month will be reached at the end of Q1 2025 (Say April 1st 2025). That'd be a fantastic outcome. ( I even didn't use 45kt production per month for the last 3 months on my table)

$450m revenue and 300kt production are much higher than what Goldman Sachs and even Bell Potter calculated.

On my post on Sept 4, I said we would still have $530m in hand(at the end of 2025FY. July 1st 2025). That's a lot of money.

LTR's spod cost even might be much lower than $650/t when it's optimised. I think LTR management knows that but not giving a clue about it, being conservative for now. But that's my expectation as I know how good the plant is working atm. It's a simple design with very high tech machines. Being underground and having a single ore body also make big difference in unit cost of production as well.

I recommend to people who want to understand why the plant design matters and how a good design reduces the cost, to look at the open pit designs, and how the ore bodies shaped in those open pits, also plant flow sheets of all other lithium producers (Greenbushes, PLS, Mt Marion, Wodgina). LTR is in a unique position at these terms of production.

The details of WOF plant design of KV project is being kept as a secret by the LTR management as I said couple of times before. There is a key point there.

As I said 5 years ago and always said since then; "Not all lithium is equal". Not all lithium project is equal either. Everyone will understand what that means sooner or later.

We will get the premium price for our products even at this bad environment.

I know it's all about the sp for us. But the current sp is too low because it's heavily manipulated. The sp for me is irrelevant for now.

Yes there is a "little bit" short squeeze atm but we haven't seen the real squeeze yet. It's going to be very bad or the shorters.

Just wait for the lithium price to go up. It's incredibly low atm. I'm sure it will move up every day from now on. Then see how the real short squeeze is going to be. You will enjoy it very much

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Thx @anatol

LTR Price at posting: 80.5¢ Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
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