IHL 0.00% 4.1¢ incannex healthcare limited

Ann: Incannex to Acquire APIRx Pharmaceuticals, page-63

  1. 1,235 Posts.
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    Interesting.

    Initial thoughts are as follows.

    Axim Biotech

    The IP portfolio and proprietary tech was previously licensed to Axim Biotech, prior to 'the assets being privatised by APIRx'.
    It would be beneficial to discover more of why the licensing with Axim Biotech ceased. Did Axim choose to focus on other development branches, and if so, what was their rationale? This is not to imply there is a negative here: it is likely Incannex sees value here because of Incannex's sharp focus on cannabinoid drug development, whereas Axim had a broader scope, and decided to focus their energies more tightly. Still, due diligence requires that we find out more.

    Timing

    No doubt there is a rationale to the timing of this acquisition that we are unable to fully appreciate because we don't see all the moving parts. That said, there are definitely some sub-optimal aspects that we can see. We've just erupted on the US stage, and although "Go Big Or Go Home" is an American maxim, it is also the case that our new American investors are looking at significant new dilution for assets that do not demonstrably accelerate a return on their investment.
    Whether this acquisition de-risks an investment in Incannex or not will require a lot more information, but what is readily apparent is that the company is spending 93 million, with no revenue source in sight for the moment.

    Company vision


    I cannot blame anyone who decides to take a dim view of this move, even though a deep dive into the assets and some insight into the BOD's strategy might reveal this to be a sensational deal. Meanwhile, the optics might not be well received by the market and I hope the company can communicate a clear vision that justifies this left field move. Until now, we knew the priorities of the company: they were simple, clear, and made perfect sense... a coherent vision of how the company intends to expend its energies and funds in pursuit of profitability, and a timetable for those pursuits, is a huge part of the investment hypothesis. And now that previously coherent vision is going to need to be communicated anew. This announcement of course provides some explanation, but I remain concerned that instead of a small handful of very convincing drug development programs addressing truly unmet needs, we will now have a dizzying array of development programs, with none of the new ones carrying the same cachet.

    One thing that could help is to spell out clearly what the timeline now looks for them, in terms of priorities.

    Proprietary tech and connections

    I see potential for this aspect to be very beneficial to IHL, since APIRx have already initiated two INDs with the FDA and have working research connections with a number of US institutions. I'd like to delve deeper into this aspect.

    GMP certified natural extracts
    I'm curious about this aspect and want to learn more. Specifically what market opportunities this presents for the company.
    Until now I took the approach that any combination drug would happily source the synthetic cannabinoid from existing manufacturers. I don't have enough data to understand whether the cost savings are significant, to produce your own GMP certified natural extract.

    Taking out the competition

    I want to discuss this aspect with y'all. Which of the APIRx programs might be in competition with primary and secondary endpoints of Incannex's existing trials? I see an IBS patent which would have been a competitor for one of the indications of IHL-675a for instance.
    Understanding this aspect would allow us to better evaluate the benefits os this acquisition.

    Conclusion

    Quite difficult for me to conclude anything at this point.
    It is a bold move. I'm open to being conclusively won over by it. My initial reflex is: the plan was already perfect... do we really need to rule the world? But ambition in the right measure and at the right time, can be handsomely rewarded.
    I'd love to know the primary motivations for the acquisition. An in depth understanding of the one or two main specific reasons why the BOD made their move.
 
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