after today's announcement I went and compared the MRE and the grade against RED 5's K.O.T.H project and Antilles will have close to 25% of their MRE due to it being at 2x the grade. (approx 4Moz versus approx 1Moz)
I then went onto RED 5's website to see what DFS like numbers I could find and the one straight away was that their LoM cashflows used Gold @ $2500 AUD over LoM
As we already know Antille's Feb Scoping Study was done at only $1650 USD, which @ 72.5c AUDUSD would be $2275 AUD gold and at 70.0 c AUDUSD would be $2357 USD gold
We also expect that given the lower operational costs in Cuba that our AISC is coming in much lower than general industry, the revised Scoping Study possibly has the following upside to come:
- June 2022 +25% MRE and +2yr LoM
- post July 2022 +??% MRE from the remaining 10% of drill results
- increased Price of Gold abve the $1650 USD used in Feb, where somewhere around $1750 USD would still be conservative
- possibly a lower exchange rate AUDUSD to be modelled given the shift to QT away from QE in US monetary policy and there likely to see a stronger USD for a while
- and silver price is poised to track gold a bit more than it has, so hopefully we don't give it away too cheaply (% discount wise) under the Offtake discussions (with Gold to Silver price ratio above 86x currenlty)
just to my thinking then, the re-worked Scoping study has quite a number of ticks in the column of "things that could improve the NPV"
So I certainly feel it's going to get quite interesting in the next 6 months
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