I actually like the idea of the deal. Few points: 1. If they...

I actually like the idea of the deal. Few points:

1. If they took just the copper, on a long term basis it's pretty good. Copper is extremely bullish until 2050 for systematic reasons and not even the EV revolution. It's war, industrialisation of India and Africa that will be the real drivers. Electrification is a bonus. If you want some more details on this have a read of the article below.

https://aheadoftheherd.com/copper-con/

2. They obviously lowballed anglo to start with. I'm not sure where the exact number is where it would be reasonable value (and obviously they want it low) but there is an argument to be made that when you're dealing with multi-decade mines having the copper is better than not (when one takes a look at the long term macro).

3. It's pretty amusing because they've been flip-flopping on copper for a while and seems they've finally come to their senses. At some point they will realise the obvious. There's not enough copper they can get via large scale M&A. They are going to have to start getting involved with Juniors to a greater degree if they want more copper exposure.

4. It's weird anglo wants to get rid of the coal. Does not seem like a smart move. Coal will continue to do well for a while, even if the western world does not like it.

I think personally we haven't even really begun the proper copper rally. The recent price movement in copper has been a long time coming, but there are long term trends that have not been priced in and it's more of a movement based on a small fraction of that + paper trading situations (eg shorts covering).

BHP should be getting really aggressive on copper right now, because they might end up paying a lot more later. And this means more than just attempts to take over companies like anglo. They need to aggressively ramp up greenfields exploration and partner with promising juniors. The entire reason we have a copper problem now is because the industry has slacked on this for a long time.

Anyway just my opinion, please share if you disagree I love a good discussion.