That's exactly it, but I also analysed the figures and compared...

That's exactly it, but I also analysed the figures and compared them with the data presented by Alexium throughout last year which actually provided slightly different information. I also looked closely at the wording in terms of the different market segments, as well as the wording in respect of the products in which sales are being made. Needless to say there remain large gaps in the way information is presented from report to report and announcement to announcement. I did send a copy of all the inconsistencies and questions raised by my reading of the Petra report but did not get a response, though didn't expect one given the size of the document I sent.

I did projections based on all the data I could find and used that to estimate an average sale $ per customer for each quarter. The figures are flakey and may be conservative but they don't get me to big figures until next year. However it is entirely possible that an improved approach to sales, more focus and better management of "agents" as well as better "deals" will deliver more than I expect as I have been conservative in calculating sales conversion rate as well as customer acquisition and average sales value.

Margins are another thing. Somehow on margins I am more inclined to be optimistic, though clearly there are different margins for different products and so overall margins are going to depend on product mix.

It has been interesting writing with a conservative approach at a time when sentiment is on the run. But I think we saw last year the risks of letting our excitement and belief get in the way. That doesn't mean there isn't good opportunity, and it doesn't mean there isn't potential. However to go back to one of my earlier references to the life cycle of any business this one is clearly in transition and that will mean there is stuff going on behind the scenes - people, roles, attitudes, relationships etc. Doesn't worry me but I would rather be pleasantly surprised than disappointed.

Parsifal