My thoughts and opinions... formed after reading the announcement, and the new deed, and the many informed and carefully thought-out posts here:
- As we suspected, the Independent Expert's Report changed the game. It came in well above the offer price from Pfizer, and released the board from having to support the takeover. The delay was clearly cause by a some really intense negotiations with Pfizer not prepared to release their grip on the company and the board. Clearly the board has been able to swing an increased bid at the cost of now having to provide a Data Confirmation Study. So now we know that Pfizer are really keen to have ResApp.
- The next significant event will be when the Data Confirmation Study is completed next Monday and the report supplied to Pfizer. This study consists of providing the Independent Statistician with the data and cough recordings from the March Covid19 study, and a working copy of the trained and locked algorithm. I believe it is almost certain that the confirmation study will confirm the original results very closely. I'm certain that when the clinical trial team saw their specificity/sensitivity results they worked the data at least three times. They would have known for certain that others would be crawling through their work in minute detail the moment they got the chance looking for flaws and errors.
Once the study data is confirmed on Monday, the share price will almost certainly stabilise at around 20c reflecting the takeover price.
But even more important than that in my view will be the validation that comes from the Data Confirmation Study. This is playing out at global scope. If confirmed and accepted by Pfizer the study will establish the credentials of cough-sound diagnostics beyond reasonable question. This will be a game-changer: ResApp will be the owner of a technology that has been proven in clinical trials, validated by independent investigation, and earnestly coveted by Pfizer. This is gold.
Going forward, at this price, with the commercial potential still in play, I believe there is a very strong case still to be made against the takeover, and the best way to make this case is by proceeding with the mail out. If we are to proceed then we will definitely need a fresh copy of the share register, but we don't need to rush to grab it. The first time around I was concerned about how long it would take to get the data when the scheme booklet was due out any day. But the data can be in hand two days after it is requested and paid for, so no need to rush to get that. We can focus on getting the communication right. A great many shares have changed hands over the last few weeks. This means that we will be talking to new holders who
bought on a price, in the context of a takeover bid, and don't have a strong understanding of the technology or its prospects. We should adapt our message to the evolving shareholder community we will be addressing.
The share price action today was interesting. Clearly a proportion of holders are happy selling at 17c. My guess is that the bulk of these are recent buyers who were buying at 11c and 11.5c. But equally interesting is that there were buyers there to support the price. Clearly there is a strong expectation in the market that the Data Confirmation Study will validate the March results.
Oh... and
@Salubrious and
@AlCp ... you two need to get a room and resolve this tension where the rest of us don't have to see it happening.
