I have been trying to find some literature about buyer's premium without much luck. It appears that:
* schemes get less of a premium than a takeover * the premium % is usually calculated based on the share price prior to the scheme/takeover announcement not the independent valuation
A key to the success of the vote will be FIL's shareholding (who paid on average over 30c). If they vote no then its very unlikely to succeed. If all the no votes on TTs list still vote no then I think it will also be unlikely to succeed given usually only 60-70% of shareholders vote.
Its great this has delayed the scheme meeting because we will get another quarterly, but it has been very concerning to me that there have been no company announcements about commercial deals/other activities since before the scheme was announced - 2.5 months ago. They could be the key to blowing apart this offer. During the CC Amatil takeover there was a quarterly with much improved results and the price was increased.
I now have an independent valuation of 27.7c - what motivates me to sell my shares at 25% under that price to a 100 billion dollar pharmaceutical company - nothing. Will be interesting to see whether they do another phone around to judge the new offer. If they call enough people they should be able to get a feel as to whether they will reach the thresholds they require.
RAP Price at posting:
17.0¢ Sentiment: Hold Disclosure: Held
