Hi Scottm, It did sound like a lot when I calculated it so I did a quick pub test with the following.
784,400 * $340usd =266,696,000
~$265m USD -> $380m AUD
Based on that I thought fair enough.
However the above is 784,400 MTU of 100% WO3. not 88% like the APT price.
take it a step further and we convert the 784,400 MTU of 100% to 88% we get the following
100/88=1.136
784,400*1.136=891,078 MTUs at 88% concentrate
891,078*340=$303m USD -> ~$435m AUD
Obviously the above is nonsense as there is no magic way to extract all of the tungsten and convert it to APT. But the numbers are large.
For something a bit more sensible I looked into the BFS document.
Chapter 16: Investment Evaluation
Page 17 - table 8: Mining Physicals, Income Statement and NPV
Year 2025. Concentrate tonnage is 8008 (800,800 MTUs of concentrate)
75% APT payable
50% concentrate grade
$315 USD APT price
which results in tungsten revenue of $129.5m AUD based on the BFS document.
We can extrapolate the 800,800 into my calculated 1,176,600 MTUs at 50% grade WO3.
1,176,600/800800 = 1.47
129.5m*1.47=$190m AUD
convert the 190m to use 340 instead of 315
190*1.08= $205m AUD
while we are at it we can convert from 73c to 70c usd/aud rate
205*1.04 =$213m AUD
Not the 250m AUD I calculated above so some of my numbers/assumptions are out a bit, however $213m is still a nice return from dropping the cut off grade on 15% of the known resource and 10 drill holes/2120m of drilling.
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