Whilst I have enjoyed reading your tirade you wrote at 2am,I do have a few issues with your claims.
Let’s start with the personal attacks, just because they really drive home thepoint that unlike the dunny budgerigars you really don’t know your shit when itcomes to comprehending what people are saying or the appreciation of any actual facts.
Firstly, at no point have I mentioned that I don’t like the stock, aspreviously stated I have lived with a person for 10 years that has respiratory issuesand visits the hospital on a regular occurrence. The field interests me and Ibelieve in the product, I just take issue with the management and those paid bythe company that like yourself have these ongoing ramblings and cant seem tofind the right balance between bullshit and fact.
Secondly, I never mentioned anything about the company running out of money.
Thirdly, I mentioned when I was younger, Iworked at McDonalds. That sentence alone says 2 things, In my previous youth Iworked at McDonalds, and I no longer work at McDonalds, but comprehension ofthe written word is clearly not a strong point of yours.
But I digress, this is a forum of expressed viewpoints, knowledge sharing andcreativity, not next level ramblings of a former currency trader in a worldleading financial market and his pseudo internet persona so let’s cover of afew of the short comings of your supreme logic of all things India and Indianhealthcare.
India currently has 2,139 registered pulmonologists, working at 14,379government hospitals. We will for the sake of my point pretend they are allactive, all still living in India and are all still alive, it just makes itthat much more fun to give you some benefit of the doubt.
And in your supreme logic, the tier 1 and 2 hospitals in you imaginary land ofRespiri godliness, just the ones that have been identified as target markets,all 200 of them, more than 28% of these registered pulmonologists are workingat these hospitals. But I would like to quote you from your modelling exercise,“ I haveconservatively decided” thatyour modelling is complete and udder nonsense
I need to quote you again, this was the epitome of your research though or thecomplete neglection of any ability to be correct, “More people die inIndia per 100k of respiratory diesease than any other market in the world “
Papua New Guinea, youknow, that small group of islands just north of Cairns, where Manus Island is, you’veheard of that place in the news yeah? Well, there are people living there, notjust those pesky refugees, but an actual population. The rates of death percapita from respiratory disease there make India’s look average, but Papua NewGuinea is a predominately poor country, not too many mega rich people so youprobably don’t class that as a market, so we can probably cross most of Africaof the list as well, the poorer sections of the middle east, the caribeen, partsof south america. But don’t let that deter you from thinking you actually knowsomething.
Lets just dive into some more of your qualityresearch, “After reviewing a number of these Tier 1hospitals I have conservatively decided to assume that on average they have 3pulmonologists each......now allresearch would suggest they see 150-250 patients per day (withadmin/support, nursing) - again I have conservatively decided to drop this to60 per day (1 consultation per 10mins, 10 hour shift) - This means 180 patientsper hospital per day x 200 hospitals = 36,000 patients per day x 6 days perweek = 216,000 per week = 11.2m per year.”
Lets just concentrate on all your research that suggests the average Indian pulmonologistis seeing between 150-250 patients per day.
Lets again for the sake of your argument assume they don’t sleep. There are 24hours in a day, 60 minutes in an hour so 1440 minutes available, now remember, theyaren’t sleeping, eating, maintaining their knowledge, seeing loved ones.
Lets go with the bottom end of your clearly well researched data and say itsonly 150 patients per day.
The average patient is seen for 9 minutes and 36 seconds. Now I know that theaverage Indian talks a little faster then I can but wow wee, how inefficient isthe Australian system.
Another quality quote from yourself, “Assumption of penetration rates isanyones guess really”, so lets just review what you’ve actually managedto comprehend and get right, um, not much, and lets take your scenarios with agrain of salt.
And your final insightful point of genius, “Given the other simultaneousdevelopments within the company I really struggle to see how this wont convertto a $1bn+ market cap (vs current $50m) “
A 20x increase? Just on everything we know so far? You must be putting thehouse on this one, imagine a future where your well researched ramblings have allowedyou the freedom to retire from the mundane 9 to 5 grind of complete and uddernonsense that you project.
