Here's how I see things.
The signing of the MPA does not equal financial closure, it merely allows for financial closure (initially for a small-scale $35m R&D plant) to be reached through negotiations by the parties, negotiations that will or should occur AFTER the MPA is signed on or before June 30, if indeed it is signed at all.
This imo is what the company means when it says:
'Importantly, the recent submission of the final report means we remain on track to meet our timetable of firstly signing the MPA which will allow us to reach financial close by 30 June this year.'
And here:
'The MPA provides the framework for the broad commercial arrangements needed to execute the R&D project, including funding, technical development, engineering, construction, commissioning and operational R&D activities. Detailed agreements covering these matters will be negotiated after the MPA is signed.'
In other words, the MPA is the framework providing the means towards financial close - the means, not the end. The real, and all-important material negotiations concerning the actual 'knee-deep in steel and cement' business haven't even started yet. And if or when they do, which is anyone's guess, then I would expect those negotiations to take months, many, many months, to complete.
Given this, is it any wonder that the market is not interested in the SP and that that, imo, might explain why the recent rise seems artificial and precarious. Some wit described it as a 'rally'. Lol! I believe the problem now facing many (especially large) holders is that the market knows what the MPA represents and might view the news/fact of its signing as a reason to sell the stock down. In other words, the market may in fact start taking the company seriously for once and value it accordingly, which imo is under $20m, until the post MPA negotiations are completed, the plant is finally built and, if all goes well, the technologies developed and commercially proven. Years and years away.
Also, inviting what the company describes in generic terms as 'senior executives' to Australia, and curiously not explaining the reason for their visit, does not mean, therefore, that they've invited Indian VIPs or PSU BoDs to Australia for the express purpose of signing the MPA, (which according to more than one HC punter will likely take place in Canberra (of course) this May (why not) with all the politicians and media present LOL!). The invited senior executives could, and probably are imo, senior engineers coming here to check out how the Coldry pilot plant is going. I would think that if they were serious about this MPA business they would not have been 'invited' but would have insisted on seeing with their own eyes just how much progress the company has made at its BM facility. Because if it's not up to scratch then I would brace myself for more ... delays. While here, I would think the visitors may get a chance to catch up with some family and friends as there are plenty of Indians living, working and studying here in oz.
Getting the MPA signed will be a good thing, if it happens. And if there is some real market interest on the anticipation of that event, and that this generates some decent demand under 2c, maybe helped by some sympathetic entities with deep pockets, then some may finally get to exit this stock with something to show. Others might want to hang in for the long haul.
But seriously folks, $500m MC!? You really do need to get a grip on reality.
Best of luck to all.
All imo.
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