It probably is quite likely, but this will have two effects in...

It probably is quite likely, but this will have two effects in my opinion. Whether levy or outright ban.

1. It will damage the share price (inevitable) People will see this as a red flag and the company will lose value. I reckon it could even drop out of ASX200 for a time.

2. It will massively increase the cost of nickel because cheap nickel won't be available from Indonesia anymore, even in low processed form. This will make all holders of mines like NIC in Indonesia very much in quids in. If you have seen from the spreadsheet NIC has been getting more and more value from that mine recently. It can always survive off that mine if needed. It's the major bargaining chip with Tshingshan.

Nickel Mines Ltd then has a limited time to quickly change the processes for the 50% it cannot sell domestically to Nickel Matte so it can be exported internationally. They said they can sell 50% domestically in Indonesia. So that will keep the company afloat until it can develop downstream production. It could go down the Matte route or sell direct to steel producers.

I think a mixed approach of 50% NPI and 50% Matte would be good then the Indonesian Domestic Market can be catered for and they have a product for export back to CHINA.

Whatever happens NIC has assets which are worth a lot and so in the long term the company will come up with solutions to get around the export restrictions. Maybe NIC will have to invest into a steel refinery with Tshingshan so they can take the process even further.

Maybe NIC Will have to just keep buying up more mines like the cobalt / nickel one it did.

The more resources it can buy up, the safer it will be.

This is all my opinion DYOR of course.