Ann: Ineligible Shareholder Letter, page-19

Tomorrow is only the deadline for those wanting to participate in the Offer to utilize their Entitlements by getting their applications/payments in.

The new shares are not issued until 30 Sept - at which time they are added to the existing SOI. Trading under the full dilution effect formally occurs the following day (1 Oct). However, the market - a forward-looking beast - will be factoring that in already.

The lack of trading on PANRC is not a reliable indicator of the take-up rate. Watch for the Shortfall Notification which is due this coming Wednesday (25 Sept). I'm expecting a shortfall. The question is what range. If they can limit it to <20%, then that will be a pretty good outcome as far as these things go, imo.

At Friday's Close of 30.5c (a 9% premium to the 38c Offer price of the new shares), I doubt the underwriter will have much trouble offloading the shortfall to their clientele. The question is going to be just how long those buyers want to hold on to them or whether they will launder them for a quick profit. It will probably resolve itself within a fortnight after the new shares start trading - say, by mid-October. Having the NP maintain its continued strength will help to limit any near-term downside...