Ann: Infigen Energy FY19 Full Year Results, page-12

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alfred137

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23/08/19

11:22

Post #: 40115998
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Originally posted by asparagii: ↑

Have a look at slide 11 - FY20 forecast cap. ex. of 8-12M. Big difference from the ~155M in FY19 (slide 9) as you said - hopefully all those investments payoff!

So free cash flow should improve a lot this FY and likely over the next few years, given they are focusing on 'capital lite' strategy (i.e. develop the wind farm and sell the approved project off for someone else to build/own, only to contract some of it's future output and re-sell that capacity on the NEM). I suspect this strategy has reduced margins cause they don't own it - but it's not costing them either, so it's "give and take". This FCF is no doubt the driving factor behind their planned ~150M of deleveraging over the next 3 years (and the dividend payment) - see slide 27. I'm glad they're planning to continue focusing on debt reduction: 3.2x EBITDA is still pretty high.

This Co. has done very well in re-inventing themselves IMO, considering the onerous debt load they used to have. It'll take time (a few years?), but I suspect we'll have a much stronger Co. in the mid-term, with a corresponding improved share price.

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thanks. With reduced capex, 100% contracted LGC price and increased generation of 1900 GWh, i think FY20 can generate 150m FCF easily. with EV just a bit above 1B, still looking cheap.

IFN Price at posting: 56.0¢ Sentiment: Hold Disclosure: Held
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Ann: Infigen Energy FY19 Full Year Results, page-12

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