Substantiated contrarian voices have their place and their value, IMO, irrespective of the holdings of those opining. Unfortunately, the unsubstantiated voices, tiresome though they be, are the price we pay.
That said, I am curious as to what the rationale for buying is/was for those currently frothing at the mouth? I am an LT investor in every sense of that term. When I invested, it was in the belief that NSL represented a giant in the making, but that the making of would be measured in years. Any speculative hype that would surge the SP one way or the other during this journey was of little interest and of even lesser consequence for me. But clearly that is not the case for everyone - hence my question.
I was invested for the gradual journey towards 8mtpa beneficiated ore at a minimum of $30 per tonne profit. That dollar figure was not a marginal cost, but an average cost that would be realised over a period of time as operations were established at first, then traction was gained with backlog of demand, and then momentum was created with rapid expansion. Since that initial investment, the story has only improved with Chinese interest in a 50/50 steel plant JV on a NSL free carry; EPC partners to fastrack the beneficiation rollout (and upgrade); and actions from the GoAP to back up their MoU with NSL.
So while a little exasperated by management's failure to adequately manage shareholder expectations - I see nothing to shake my initial investment strategy. Indeed I invested with an average of around 1c with the clear expectation of a 100 bagger over 5-6 years based just on the beneficiation target of 8mtpa. If the steel plant JV comes to fruition, my revised target (based on conservative assumptions) is for the payoff to be raised to 180 bags without a material increase in timeframe.
I also sympathise with management's expectations management failure as I know from my own experiences that while India can deliver exceptional rewards, the journey is never as expected or as promised. Straightforward can become convoluted and convoluted can be miraculously resolved. India can also be intensely disappointing, but typically for those with limited patience and/or a decision-making framework that is culturally untuned. So, I look for substantive signs of imminent failure. In the absence of that, I assume that we are on track as far as heading towards the LT goal. It is as simple as that for me - for now.
I continue to hold, and actually, happier than ever. My investment feels more 'de-risked' today than even 6 months ago.
All IMO and GLTA. Apologies for the above that may be TL/DR for some.
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