If your really keen, entry to the Crown Perth for this 2 day...

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2ic

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20/03/19

12:08

Post #: 37822493
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Originally posted by 2ic: ↑

Pretty clear equity compnent required by SFX

AUD$463M capex
AUD$340M finance provided by Taurus and NAIF combined (at AUDUSD 71c FX)
AUD$123M Equity for finance thus running a 74% geared project
AUD$141M Equity additional for corp costs, working cap etc

AUD$264M equity raise required by SFX to get project up and running. My earlier analysis was working of $235M as per Bridge St report

At 55c CR price, IF all placement ASX CR, would be another 480M shares for a total of approx 740M shares owning 100% of project. What was the NPV again? My logic says at least the AUD$85M capex increase (after NPV discount of year 4 expansion, not including the NAIF funded $65M capex) has to be deducted from DFS of $620 bringing it down to around $535M NPV post tax.

Slice and dice that however you like, deducting of course the $141M working capital and corp costs to get mine built, life of mine corp overheads, add in exploration value and maybe you get $400M NPV, add back about $150M of capex equity raised into the NPV for circa $550M NPV, or $0.75/share valuation.

As pointed out by the SFX posters earlier, NPV is not everything, there is a strategic value to the project, there could be a value accrediting equity sale at project level which reduces the CR requirement. Very interesting for me, no mention of structured strategic sale process what so ever, removed form the previous presentations! A conscious choice by management, could it be because ramping a strategic project level sell down in market announcement when they have information that such is very unlikely would constitute a legal breach of disclosure requirements and a possible law suit?

Still remains an enigmatic investment proposition with a large CR overhang to the share price.

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If your really keen, entry to the Crown Perth for this 2 day conference is $3,200+gst. Industry only audience I'm guessing haha.

SFX Price at posting: 59.5¢ Sentiment: Hold Disclosure: Held
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First 5 Last

(20min delay)
Last 33.0¢		Change -0.010(2.94%)		Mkt cap ! $129.7M

Open	High	Low	Value	Volume
32.5¢	33.0¢	30.5¢	$281.3K	888.1K

Buyers (Bids)

No.	Vol.	Price($)
2	23000	31.5¢

Sellers (Offers)

Price($)	Vol.	No.
33.0¢	499	1

View Market Depth

No.	Vol.	Price($)
2	23000	0.315
3	6194	0.310
2	40629	0.305
10	192416	0.300
1	51331	0.295

Price($)	Vol.	No.
0.330	499	1
0.335	1481	1
0.340	11764	1
0.350	10000	1
0.360	52104	3

Last trade - 16.10pm 12/06/2024 (20 minute delay)


Last 32.5¢		Change -0.010 ( 3.76 %)
Open	High	Low	Volume
33.0¢	33.0¢	30.5¢	290704
Last updated 15.56pm 12/06/2024 ?

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