So I have decided that I am much better at predicting the Past rather than trying to predict the Future.
The AGM last year was really a reset of expectation. I and others were deeply concerned that Production was downgraded from over a Mt/year to 500,000 tonnes CY2024.
In fact I did not believe the former figure based on past performance.
The Reset is demonstrated in the graph below.
So really at the start of CY2024 we probably had in vicinity of 40,000 tonnes on stockpiles. Just a guess from various photos.
We all kept saying the problem was barges, not enough and too late in acquiring. But now with my hindsight mirror, I see that was not correct! IMO
The restriction has been the road and to some extent Batu Tuhup loading system. IMO I am comfortable with that as every month the road gets better and Batu Tuhup conveyor gets closer to commissioning.
So the ramp up below now makes sense.
January 24 10 to 12,000 t/month : So that was the capability of the Road transport and small barges at that time. 2 x mining fleets.
May 24: Increase mining fleets to 5 and production >25,000/month Road in better condition and Batu Tuhup progressing.
Running about 2 months behind schedule I think, IMO
July 24: now IMO September 24, add 5 more mining fleets. After the dry season the road in much better state of repair. Fingers crossed, Batu Tuhup commissioned.
So in my opinion we are looking at 400,000 tonnes for CY2024. I am more than comfortable with that.
Now we have access to Buntok ISP, our 2 x barges can deliver 30,000 tonnes/month to Buntok and Petrindo have their own barging company that I understand they will make available to us.
So all in my opinion DYOR
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So I have decided that I am much better at predicting the Past...
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