Ok, that's good carried losses helps. Still overstated as gross "only" gets you to $33.6m, don't get me wrong, good profit for a small cap, but let's get the numbers right, or at least show the working to achieve consensus - very important.
You have stated 3 debts, which total $14m usd - it seems you are a bit light here maybe? is there another $2m usd unaccounted for (see pic)? But assuming you are correct:
Cash flow projection:
Cash position as at June 30 = $1.5m Cash raising via IPO = $7m Cash position = $8.5m
September qtr earnings: $2.3m Cash position: $10.8m
December qtr earnings: $2.3m Debt repayments: $3.4m Cash position: $9.7m
March qtr earnings: $2.3m Debt repayments: $6.8m Cash position: $5.2m
June qtr earnings: $2.3m Debt repayments: $8.8m Cash position: -$1.3m
By this stage the gold is exhausted, as is the cash balance - which is in fact in the red. I have used the quarterly costs from the June quarter and straight lined across the next four quarters. Worth noting two features there:
Development costs in June qtr: $2.5m Interest and finance costs in June qtr: $1.1m
The interest costs will come down each quarter from October, however the bulk of the debt sits in the back end. Lets put a $1m back into the company through interest savings over the 12 months. Cash position now -$0.3m
What were the development costs? What is the forward projection here? At best you can put $10m back into the company by assuming no development and no exploration costs. This goes against the stated objective of the company and would be terrible to see really. Important to have a handle on the development and exploration budget here.
However, can we agree that cash flow will be too tight for comfort. Noting the company is not hedged either, which is great whilst prices are going up, but what if market sentiment turns? Cash flow could look quite dire. That is a pessimistic case, but shouldn't be ruled out entirely.
I do also note that ore produced in June quarter is not conducive with the stated annual production. Is there some upside expected here? It should be around 6,000oz per quarter, this will of course change the cash flow projection quite comfortably.
I remain confident, a cap raise will occur with this company, most likely in the March quarter.
