The calculations are based upon revenue because there is insufficient information to calculate the overheads, and therefore earnings.
However, working back with available information however, one can refer to Lynas company announcements circa 2020 to get an understand of how the price of the REO product affects earnings. In March 2020, reflecting on the quarter prior and the year to date leading up, Lynas reports of sales roughly 25% above production costs (excluding capex). Now during this period, the price of REO was hovering around $20/kg, suggesting that the overhead breakeven costs is somewhere at $15/kg.
Fast forward to today's prices where REO costs have increased to $60/kg, it roughly means that any reasonable operation as as a measuring stick could have $20/kg (for the sake of inflation argument above the 15kg in 2020) as a break even, and would probably have overheads of only a third of production. Sure, there are assumptions and inferences everywhere here. Does Lynas operate more efficiently? With less costs? But, perhaps in reality vast rise in REO prices have reached a level where the fine details of 5% here or 10% there of production inefficiencies are less significant to the high price point or REO, where making money should be relatively straight forward for management which have a solid mining background. Elon Musk commented that the lithium miners are printing money these days... while I'm not sure REO prices are at the same point, there seems to be plenty of profit to be made.
Also, if you would like the company to release a report for you detailing the projections, then the share price will not be nearly where it today. This is where opportunities exist in the small caps in my humble opinion.
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