Ann: Initial Mine Permit Application Submitted for Antler Deposit, page-6

Honestly, no knock of management stuck with the invidious task of trying to keep up expectations and the share price over the long Lassonde journey to FID, but investors really have to look at what they do instead of listening to what they say. When what they are doing is kept hidden from outsiders (the market), following the price action driven by leaks from insiders can be instructive as to reality vs the sales pitch. (NB: "insiders" as defined by ASIC is anyone with knowledge not released to the market, which could be anyone who knows someone who knows something who let slip... most people understand this, it's no accusation against anyone in particular).

So NWC starts with the to-naive-to-be-true "Bringing Antler Back Into Production" carrot on a short stick, despite management having lots of experience with mine permitting multiple deposits in North America. I grabbed some of the historical Work Programme forecasts to demonstrate the slippage drip fed out to the market over time. It's my personal belief from following the stock back when, that communications with the BLM about the mine permit application requirements around June 2021 was when the penny really dropped on reality vs 'aspiration' on the time-line sunk in (on account of the share price cratering in June 2021, the commentary subtly changing, started chasing private land to minimise BLM impact, work programme charts radically changing etc)...



Anyway, the when's and why's of history are speculation. Fact is, share price fell into a classic Lassonde Slump suggestive of a much longer permitting process than was being guided to the market and so it turned out. The question punters now want to know is how long this MPO process and ultimate BLM mine permit approval will actually take, are we close yet? NWC last presso (AGM NOV'23) has the approval process taking 2 years from submission...


I think our best guess is to follow the money as they say. In Jul'23 Nick Woolrych was appointed CEO and his Long Term Incentive package was instructive as to what insiders' thought were reasonable timeframes for very significant performance rights hurdles. Nick was given 3 years to expiry from July'23, but specifically to approval of the MPO the hurdle date was 2.5 years, which also is the end of CY 2025. Given PR hurdles are an incentive to perform above expectations and hit targets, it's a fair assumption that the BLM MPO approval by Dec'25 is a coin toss outcome, which obviously could take longer given the community submissions and interative nature of environmental and mine permitting processes in general...


Project construction starting Q2 2023.... lol