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Arktic, Do you disagree with the company provided probabilities?...

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spinefx

9,401 Posts.

1067

21/10/19

10:44

Post #: 40983455
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Originally posted by Arktic1970 ↑

Probabilities are just that... probabilities.

A 75% chance of success sounds pretty good. But once you multiply .75 by itself four times over, you end up with a 31% chance of success.

In reality, success is binary. Either the play proves commercial, or not. If commercial, the upside is staggering. If not, the downside is finite (zero value).

Probabalistic modeling is useful for comparing and contrasting opportunities. But at the end of the day, the truth serum in this binary outcome model remains the drill bit.

A deeper analysis of XCD's first identified prospect suggests it is on trend with the Willow - a massive ConocoPhillips Nanushuk oil discovery currently under development.

I like what I see with XCD much more than I liked the 88E play following the results of the first well along the Dalton Highway. 88E's upcoming well may be a different story. It is a traditional NS oil prospect, not a shale play.

There is a lot more oil to be discovered on the NS of Alaska. And, XCD may have positioned itself to be in the path of a significant amount of the oil to be discovered.

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Arktic,

Do you disagree with the company provided probabilities?

Do you have any thoughts on why the previous work done in and around Umiat, despite it being on trend with Willow, has resulted in zero commercial discoveries to date?

Thanks in advance.

Cheers

XCD Price at posting: 1.0¢ Sentiment: None Disclosure: Not Held
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Arktic, Do you disagree with the company provided probabilities?...

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