drifta,
This may be of some help, well, it was to me on some other projects I have looked at.
View attachment 1727556If we use a simplistic view here to obtain the probability of success, by taking an average across the 4 key components of 60%.
Then Pg=0.6*0.6*0.6*0.6
So, Pg=0.13 or 13%
I then read it that, in the 13% success case they strike an economic/commercial prospect there is only a 50% chance of it then bring developed.
Very, very long odds, in my view.
