Another pillar crumbles...
- A$28M NPV for a standalone operation running at 500,000 tonnes per annum (the rate set in the optimisation). No discounting because the optimum shell contents are gone in the first year.
- capital cost for 500ktpa?
- use ADT capex US$182M for 800ktpa less US$40M for underground then halve it...($182 - 40) x 0.5 / 0.67 = AU$105M
- use BGL capex AU$269M for 750ktpa -$104M for underground then multiply by 400/750 = (269 - 104) x 400 / 750 = AU$88M
- So it's not going to be a standalone plant until they find another 10 'Big' Ones within trucking distance and even then you would be better to put your money in the bank.
Weren't they supposed to be trucking this to an existing plant?
- "The study focused on the near-surface component of known mineralisation". Now a Measured resource is reasonably well understood. An inferred resource should never be called "known", it implies a certainty which is just not there. In reality, the study considered the entire resource but only the near-surface bit made it into the optimised shell...this cross-section is on the easting of BO303_RC and only gets to 50-60m deep. The deepest ore-grade intercepts (narrow, high strip ratio) on or near that section are over 100m deep.
- "known (inferred) mineralisation is open south-west and down-dip from the pit shell" So what? The optimisation doesn't believe it is economic and left it behind. Drilling deeper is not going to help and as for "open to the south-west", well maybe but there's no grade there.
- there are zinc, lead and gold prospects which "are highly prospective for copper"...that just about says it all! Go out there and get em guys! Start with Arya!
The plan below of the selected optimum shell at surface is revealing...those coloured squares are 10m x 10m and the green, orange and red ones are the ones most likely to go through the mill. Now the way I look at it you've got about 150m of strike where the mineralisation is 20-30m wide. Cast your mind back to the drilling results at the Big (ha ha ha) One - the widest intercepts were in BO301_RC and BO303_RC.
Below is the section showing BO303_RC...now you can see that the overall plan width of stuff is indeed about 30m but that halo zone running 100-1500ppm is never going to pay so you would expect to see about a 10m width of mineralisation (green, orange and red) in plan. How did the model come up with 30m? With 303_RC being the widest CCZ intercept, how do we end up with 150m of strike at 20-30m wide?
