GEM g8 education limited

Ann: Institutional Investor Presentation, page-11

  1. 68 Posts.
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    Drilling into the numbers a slightly disappointing result, albeit nothing of concern or surprise. Market appeared to react to CFO announcement, my feeling is (b).

    NPAT and EPS were effected by higher than consensus interest charges as well as a rather large FX movement on the loan.

    Guidance on CY16 financing charges is $21m (gross interest cost), they are repaying some of the SGD loans and hedging the balance. Conservatively $16m PBT /$11.5m NPAT uplift from those items if i've calculated correctly.

    Still uncertainty around occupancy as a result of government changes, following quote from ords research note this morning on their views 'While it is difficult to quantify the impact on demand for childcare as a consequence of these revised subsidy arrangements (should they be implemented), history (and logic) suggests that increased government funding for childcare (particularly the higher cap) is correlated with female workforce participation, thus leading to higher occupancy (and/or fees) within existing childcare centres.'

    It is trading on a CY16 P/E of 12.2x and CY16 EV/EBIT of 9.2x with a fully franked dividend yield of 7.3% (cash). Markets not pricing much in there for 'growth'

    Again its no $5, I see more upside than downside at present and i wouldn't be surprised if the market reprises it to low $4, although this may require HY16 results.
    Last edited by Duxbellorum: 23/02/16
 
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