@subi1 is all over it and its great when he posts. It is a really good place to read about ASM.
Yes on this one I am seeing things differently. Let's start with the CR and feedstock money for a possible US entity. Depending on the entity they will need more than just $AUD60M in the bank for feedstock money to enter a contract. They will need end to end due diligence and they will require those samples approved. Here is what I think. Our team was in the US not that long ago and they have talked about advanced discussions. Was it a kind of junket, were they all part of a group competing for certain contracts, or were they there to speak to an entity to further advance a previously discussed contract say they had already sent samples, it was approved and they went over to further advance advance the discussion. . Commercial-in Confidence - heard it before. Not buying this time but have not sold as I have to give Rowena a shot at being different.
What I do know is that I picked the CR because there is pattern in managements announcements. It is hard to get one over
@subi1 but the CR did not surprise me, see here
Post #: 64418815 , what I think is, ASM cannot guarantee if we get a US contract, just with an increased balance sheet. What they do know is a global recession is looming, markets will be decimated if the Democrats win the midterms, and who knows what will happen if they lose. Bad stuff is happening and they need money to ride it out. This is a logical reason for the CR at this time. Prudent and clever.
It is very clear in the KOMIR agreement as to what it was set up for. Supply feedstock for Korean entities. Now didn't someone speak to Rowena and they came on here letting us know that they were adopting a leaner policy on KMP, and only purchasing enough feedstock to meet their contracts. The only contract at the moment is with NS World for 10T over 4 months, but no mention of KOMIR and NS World are a Korean Magnet maker. ASM secured the alloy for that it would seem as they have announced they are in advanced commercial-in confidence discussions to secure the long term supply of NdPr feedstock. Ref: Sep Quarterly.
In another announcement they have stated more contracts are coming in the months ahead 1. Contracts can't be a US entity seeking NdPr metal as they have not secured NdPr feedstock. 2. Maybe a Korean Entity seeking a small quantity of NdPr metal, same deal tho they still need to source the feedstock as KOMIR are on the go slow. Maybe they are referring to looming NdFeB alloy contract as they state in the Sep Qtr they are in advanced talks, but again where is the feedstock to produce NdFeB alloy let alone strip metal alloy. It cannot be for the production of metal anyway as the strip caster is not yet commissioned. The language is confusing hence my scepticism.
What I read in the announcements is timelines blowing out, crazy MOUs and 1 contract for peanut tonnage for 21/2 T/m and advanced discussions in Korea and US. I would be pissed if my friends treated me like that. ASM and the SK Government are meant to be friends, the SK Government (KOMIR) should have put in place a process for diversification of supply away from CCP supply into the hands of SK end users or a trading entity that then sells to end users, the latter would be better. It makes sense that this would be happening. I find at this stage the probability of technical issues creating a bottleneck being low especially when the South Koreans would be scrambling for diversification. A bottleneck in relations higher. A bottleneck in relations creating a bottleneck with technical issues yes as well. Yes
supposition on my part also but can we say an educated supposition on KOMIR being on the go slow.
I get what @subi1 is saying about KOMIR supplying feedstock for South Korean entities in relation to the CR. But I just do not see a US contract on the immediate horizon. I do see the midterms and I do see parts of the world on the edge of something very dark.
What I have said about Ian or Rowena having a meeting to fast track the joint statement of cooperation with KOMIR may have been interpreted as sarcasm but I think it should be their next move. First it would be prudent diplomacy to do so.. they are in the US and talking up offtakes and have sought a CR on that basis. That CR directly impacts the Korean Consortiums Framework Arrangement, yes its non-exclusive but it is not dead. They need to continue to show respect or risk blowback. Even if IG stumped up the cash for KCF (which he didn't) ASM still need to show respect.
Have that meeting, photos lots of smiles. Fast track the joint statement with KOMIR. I do believe the time to diversify supply chains is now and I do believe KOMIR have influence and I do believe they can readily source feedstock.. So second its validation that our relationship with the South Korean Government is sound. And third now is right time to fast track things in South Korea just before the midterms. Fourth KOMIR seem like very big hitters in the supply chain industry of mines and critical metals and could influence Dubbo finance.
Ian Chalmers is back at it and that is a huge positive for ASM. If Ian is working with ANSTO all the better and I believe he is as third party independent analysis of assays used to produce sample analysis for products representative of the current flowsheet is methodical and I am sure it says to do it that way in some text book or guideline. ANSTO is doing that to support marketing with interested product off-take customers, but with a delay in the issue of the Notice to Proceed to HEC (Planning Approval aside), maybe ANSTO are working on something else as well that has slowed the advancement of the Framework Agreement.
@subi1 all good, you say a change in direction due to pushing hard, delays due to covid and supply chain issues. Fair enough, these are valid but I am thinking that we were not told enough, or told enough in plain English that allows us to know what has happened and that type of language in announcements is continuing. These things influence the price of the securities and we the shareholders need information released and clarity in announcements to make informed decisions.
