Of course AKP is most definitely a speculative stock - at the moment. So what?
How can you value a stock realistically that does not have any product or any revenue - yet?
Any projected revenue stream used to assess its earnings has to be very largely speculative, based both on the size of its addressable market and its time weighted availability.
Yet any honest assessment has to conclude that its potential market and revenue has to be massive, and its rate of penetration into that market has to be huge based on the benefits it offers to manufacturers and consumers.
So the SP is very high - based on investors expectations that it will soon be worth an awful lot of money. Clearly that is speculative. No question about it. Is it massively overvalued? The jury has to be allowed to think about that one for a bit longer.
But does that make it a poor investment at this price? Personally I do not think so. I consider it a speculative stock that has a very high probability of imminent success, balanced against my own speculative assessment of there being a very low risk that its developers will not manage to make it work, and make it work soon.
Does that reduce my assessment to nothing more than wishful thinking? Not in my eyes.
Do I know that I am taking a risk based on an irrational sense? Of course I do. And clearly so do many others. Were we all wrong? Wait and see.
Am I disappointed that the recent announcement was not a champagne worthy A+ report?
Of course I am.
But has my conditional optimism turned into blind panic and pessimism?
Not really.
The announcement was a B- at worst.
The integration stage has been completed. That is another major step forward.
There was an identified problem for which there was not a convenient workaround. Dang!
The nature of the product, and the inability to test it until the actual integration was performed, means the current "first run" batch of finished wafers are now junk. But reserved wafers can be, and now have to be, brought forward, and a fix has been announced to make them work. This is a question of an inconvenient and frustrating delay not a "back to the drawing board" failure. How do I re-rate my sentiment based on this? Do I immediately think: "This has failed, these guys are useless, worse, they're scamming me, there is no hope now! I've lost all my money!" Or what? Was all my previous consideration and evaluation purely self deception? Or is it still pretty sound? (no pun intended!)
This all reminded me of a friends kid who recently sat her driving license and failed on a little error. She was devastated. "I'll never get it! I'm so useless! I should have known I would fail." But two weeks later she re-sat and passed. Now she's driving. This has exactly that sort of feel to it, and all those investors who panicked have the same kind of catastrophising speculative attitude that she exhibited. Like reef fish they all scattered at a passing shadow. While I picked up some bargains I could barely afford!
Happy New Year!
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