So one can value it. Have a crack and share it with us.
Like I've mentioned it's difficult to value this without the usual financial metrics, suffice to say imo at $300M it looks expensive on a single product that has hit major turbulence. All i can add is I don't buy into hype and potential as much as others. I suppose when I look at valuing something I will look at a base case scenario and use that as my blue sky. Plus when i see companies with market caps of $0-$100M which have been growing, have reasonable revenues and profits and then I see AKP at $300M cap (1PG is one that springs to mind that also was bid up enormously and even funds were buying it yet it had no revenues just hype and potential) I get nervous considering there is a litany of companies that crashed after hype and potential didn't deliver.
This doesn't help value a company.
It adds the major discount to a high spec company. Hence one wants to be compensated on taking a significant risk by paying a reasonable price and at $300M imo it's not reasonable.
There are other ways ("exceptions"), e.g. by analysing the potential and applying a discount for risk.
No doubt and fair to a point, analysing the potential problem lies it's an extremely ballpark way of doing valuations and chances are you are way out in any calculations. Then again if thats what you use then I'd be applying a massive discount of 95%. With that in mind and applying that discount in reverse you would see the potential of AKP at $6B. If that's what you see as the best case scenario for AKP on your positive assumptions and potential then yes in your eyes the stock looks attractive
Jibes about research capability aside, there are numerous examples of companies with MEMS based technology being acquired.
Fair enough again, baring in mind every company is different and you can never compare apples with apples. It's just a very rough guide in the best of times
AKP has been rerated, it's <50% off its high, what's your point?
Point is I thought at $600M it was priced for perfection and perhaps the investors thought they had this in the bag, plus given it very little risk. The selloff was healthy at the very least but still doesn't, imo, account for the risk which has just come to the fore in the latest announcement.
Revenue is pretty useless without profit. Compare potential profits between AKP and the others. I'm all ears for other solid investments.
I disagree and it depends. Amazon went years without profit while building revenues and company by being aggressive in spending (it's all but one example, there are many others) and here we are, a behemoth of a company. One needs to understand the company, the industry and the reasons why investing in growth is more important than short term profits (in some cases)
Now we're getting somewhere, i.e. half of the equation (the discount). Again, suggest ignoring my (and other peoples') valuation of AKP's potential for a moment and doing your own. Then share it and compare yours with others on the AKP valuations thread. Just look down the AKP forum page if you're unable to use google to find it.
I'm not ignoring anyones valuation except to say anyone who comes up with high valuations (circa >$300M) has very high expectations, possibly unrealistic (and yes u can use any assumptions you want) and little risk built in. Usually it's human nature to be over the top positive and turn a blind eye to risk and expectations when you love and own a stock.
Righto, they're still in development, got it.
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