Some thoughts, DYOR.
Disclosure: I hold NMT, NIC and DeepGreen via the pre-merger SPAC and intend to own Licycle eventually too.
On the spinoff, was surprised about the accelerated timeline, but agree with other posters that most would surely be valuing that at 0 for the most part but maybe attributed a small valuation after the PGE update. So first point is that a spinoff should unlock value to shareholders where almost none is being attributed at the moment. This also unlocks the potential for a company like BHP to come in and acquire the asset and integrate it into their operations, they would probably require some more drilling for the PGE aspect first. The spinoff would allow the new company to raise funds separately for that.
On the NMT side the remaining company moves its credentials further into the ESG space and so unlocks the potential of institutional investment that is flooding into that space. In terms of timing, my thoughts there are that perhaps the projections of this runaway Nickel market are unfounded especially given more recent developments. After Tsingshan's announcement earlier in the year it unlocks the potential for NPI producers like NIC to supply Nickel Matte when the price starts running effectively introducing a dampening mechanism on the matte price. Further to that there has been recent movement with Nauru and DeepGreen's application for a sea mining licence which would bring in another large low cost production source. CR is an intelligent fellow and I'm sure he is aware of the changing dynamics of the nickel market. Going forward I think there are too many questions on a potential surge in supply to try and get an accurate picture of what the nickel price will do, it could be a bit of a rollercoaster, but certainly if there is a spike it could turn out to be front loaded rather than 5 years from now, so you would want to try and accelerate to production to catch that spike before its dampened, particularly if the PGE prices are high.
On the battery recycling I'm sure you guys are all monitoring the developments at licycle as well, especially given their rather lofty valuation from the SPAC. Its interesting that the price there has started finding support again, I was expecting it to hug $10 until after merger, but its indicating that the market doesn't think the lofty valuation is unwarranted. Now they are specifically going quite aggressively into expanding in NA which NMT has recently entered. Certainly it looks like their strategy is a bit different in that they are trying to get the footprint in terms of the plants before organising the feed. Time will tell whether this is the correct approach, it may prove to be. If that is the case then its likely they will capture the lion's share of the market in NA while NMT will hopefully do the same in Europe. The biggest prize obviously is Asia with China leading car sales, and India moving up the rankings to fifth, so going forward it will be interesting how the companies handle the diplomatic side of things to unlock that market. Certainly NMT's involvement with Itochu indicates to me they are currently in the lead. In saying that, I think it will likely be worthwhile owning both companies.
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