Ann: Intention to Make Takeover Bid, page-132

I'm agnostic on whether BHP will bid. After some reflection, I'm leaning on the side of 'not'.

It's certainly nice for NW to be able to utilise the 'sweeter' conc. from MCR's ore to blend and balance out the Mt Keith conc. met profile at the Kal smelter. But just how strategically critical is it for NW/BHP? After all, NW's smelter (as part of its broader vertically integrated ops) still operated -- albeit in a less optimal manner -- during the last downturn when the Kambalda concentrator was offline (on C&M).

Sure, having the sweeter conc. from MCR's ore is better than not, but I think BHP will look beyond that to focus on the larger question of just how suitable, operationally, owning MCR's mines would be.

It's certainly a symbiotic relationship, but I'm of the view that MCR needs NW/BHP much, much more than BHP needs MCR. BHP may well take the broader view that, by owning the only local concentrator, the miners who utilise it are captive customers -- regardless of who owns said customers.

The market is punting otherwise, atm, which is fair enough.

Also, there were 16m shorts as at last Friday which need covering, which has already been mention by another.

I should add that there doesn't need to be a competing bid in order for Wyloo to increase its offer. A general boycott by sellers would also apply *some* upward pressure -- albeit not nearly as effectively as a competing bid.