Any counter-bidder such as my clear pick BHP, will have to offer 175-180c for AF to get that small ~25% flip gain like he did before in AGO POS for example.
In Noront AF did not flip but a bidding war erupted & this settled at a 57% higher price than the initial bid by BHP.
In AGO not long ago FMG & AF had a 20% blocking stake in what they termed a "strategic stake" giving hope to the 50,000 aussie battler LTHs who were massively in a capital loss including me, then SURPRISE JOHNNY, they flipped it to Gina for $450M at a pathetic ~25% gain and sent us 50,000 under the bus. Gina then went on to make $15B on AGO which FMG AF & all us LTHs missed out on.
The idea that suddenly now the leopard will change its spots years later is not credible.
The idea that after 20 years of fighting BHP they could become friends suddenly is not credible.
The idea that AF with NO NICKEL MILL (with or without MCR) can produce on his own without taking 2-3 years and $400M to build a MILL (like SIR did) is not credible.
AF could flip for a ~25% gain as he has done in the past.
BHP & AF could engage in a bidding war
I predict a bidding war and AF or BHP to succeed here. Cant see IGO not flipping their 7% stake for a good gain.
This also exposes the other 2 remaining Ni stocks in play between AF IGO BHP that I follow to potential counter responsive bids.
Either way, MCR is now global Ni news and BHP is facing the loss of its lapdog & exposing its difficulties in meeting its Ni supply contracts.
Will this end up like AGO POS or like Noront/WSA?
Sentiment changed to BUY as upside is here.
AF is continuing the Nickel war, this time in BHPs backyard & going on a pre-emptive strike.
Can BHP let MCR go to AF and lose 3 times in a row to AF?
BHP MUST respond imho.
