I've done a bit of number crunching here:So the best capture for...

I've done a bit of number crunching here:

So the best capture for my investment thesis in this company is based around the $ revenue per terminal. Secondly the focus is on growing the number of deployed terminals.


We can see on the bottom right graph -- Revenue per terminal was $3,100 over FY21.

As per the July Q1 update, the July run rate was $2.32m and given the 7,306 terminals implied a revenue per terminal of $3,811 on an annualised 12 month view. (Keep in mind that I expect Dec, January to be the "busy" period).

July saw the RPTa (Revenue Per Terminal, annualised) come in at $3,608 and August with $3,290.

This implies that even given the lockdowns, SMP is still generating more $ per terminal than it was for the period that was FY21.





Oh, and we should probably be cognisant of the ~850 terminal additions added for the months of August and July.

If SMP can deploy 1,000 units a quarter this implies ~4,000 a year. For the sake of conservatism lets say they achieve 3,500 new terminals.

3,500 terminals at a conservative RPTa of $3,500 creates ~$12.25m in revenue simply from additions. (This is my aspiration for the company for FY22 in additions alone).



BULLISH CASE

A bullish take on the above numbers:

4,000 new terminals * $4,000 per terminal

$16m incremental revenues.




All for the price of $175m NZD. Not really a good reflection of the upside potential for Smartpay over the next three years.......