Lux, I took you off ignore this afternoon for the first time in about 2 years, as I'm very interested (concerned) about this topic and therefore all ears to any reasonable debate.
I'm glad you mentioned the Russian/Ukranian war. China's angst towards Australia began long before this war, and more pertinently, long before Putin's new cosey relationship with Xi. Russia and China's history is not exactly one of friendship, but times change. Consider Germany and Japan's new friends since WW2. China and Russia are now good bedfellows, but only because they have a common interest: their distaste for the West.
China does not want Russia to lose this war, but there is not much they can do about it other than to provide weapons. But their obvious reluctance thus far - afterall, NATO and others have been arming Ukraine since the beginning - is that China will become isolated by the West, and this interferes with their local agenda, ie, taking Taiwan, before they are ready to make this move. China is forced now to deal with the failing situation in Europe, but it is not their main focus. Xi went along with Putin because of their common interest, like flies to dog shit, but now that it has turned smelley, Xi won't want to become involved, unless of course, he uses it as an excuse to speed up his local plans on Taiwan, by supplying weapons to Russia, bringing the West's wrath, and using this reason to invade Taiwan. But China doesn't need any new excuse, so I doubt Xi will assist Russia. Xi entertained Putin because that is what despots do, just as Hitler did with Mussolini. But the one thing China is not going to do, is invade Russia. Russia would nuke them the moment they tried, besides, China's prize is far better than Russia..........
Ultimately, and deep down, China is suffering from what they perceive as hundreds of years of Western Imperialism, which they are now prepared to make right. They are living in a time warp, and if anyone reads their commentary, they are always making statements about their historical mistreatment. This of course is outlining history but is not a legitimate reason to make war on the West. To believe so is like suggesting Australian Aborigines have the right to make war on their invaders.
Anyway, to cut to the chase and highlight further my mian thesis, is that the only thing seperating China from taking northern Australia, is the US 7th Fleet and its minimal allie support, all of which will not stand against the full force of the Chinese military.
Yes, this pending conflict could begin any day as many conflicts unexpectantly do, but there would have to be a very major unheaval in China's reasoning for it not to occur eventually. The biggest threat to China's plans are the 500 000 000 middle class citizens who want what the West offers. China's recent step back from Covid zero is an oustanding example of the fear that the communist party holds about the rise of its middle class. But Covid is one thing, making their stamp on an unjust history by subduing their adversaries is quite another, and one that most Chinese citizens will go along with.
Nice chatting.
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